วันอังคารที่ 26 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Phillip Stock Market Technical Analysis Recommends Buy QH

Quality Houses – QH - BUY

Target price : Bt1.20
Recommendation : BUY
Closing Price (27 Feb 09) : Bt0.80

4Q08 profit slightly above forecast
- Fourth-quarter profit was up 5% YoY but down 33% QoQ.
- YTD presales are still low compared to our forecast, but the momentum

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of housing sales for luxury high-end QH brand is stronger than the mid-tier Casa brand. QH holds its view that 2009 presales will be flat, but we maintain our forecast that 2009 presales will fall by 8%. We also expect 2009 profit to be lower than last year.
- QH still see sales potential of its two condo projects in Lang Suan and Sathorn based on the market survey. Construction is expected to be completed this year with ownership transfer next year. The success of sales will translate into 2010 revenues.
- We reiterate a BUY stance on QH based on attractive P/E valuation, good dividend yield and low P/BV ratio.

4Q08 profit up 5% YoY but down 33% QoQ
Thai developer QH posted a 4Q08 profit of Bt326m, up 5% YoY but down 33% QoQ. The result topped our forecast of Bt306m as margin of 33% beat our forecast of 31%. Fourth-quarter revenue was down both QoQ and YoY as presales dropped 15% YoY and 19% QoQ. Gross margin was up YoY but flat QoQ. For the whole of 2008, QH made a profit of Bt1.5m, up from Bt1.0b a year earlier. In the face of uncertainties, we expect QH to pay a lower 2008 dividend of Bt0.08/share from a year-ago figure of Bt0.11/share.

YTD presales are still low compared to our forecast, but the momentum of housing sales for luxury high-end QH brand is stronger than the mid-tier Casa brand. QH holds its view that 2009 presales will be flat, but we maintain our forecast that 2009 presales will fall by 8%. We also expect 2009 profit to be lower than last year.
The double whammy of political and economic headwinds including the shutdown of Bangkok's main airports dragged housing presales down in 4Q08 and the slowdown c0ntinued well into early Jan 2009, but things improved in late Jan 2009 to date. The pickup in sales momentum for luxury high-end QH brand is stronger than the mid-tier Casa brand. Sales contribution from QH brand started to rise from 4Q08. The projects at Ratchapreuk, Watcharaphol and Rama II have been well received by the market. QH believes that clients in the high-end segment are less vulnerable to economic hardships. YTD presales account for only 12% of our 2009 presales target. We expect 2009 presales to fall by 8% from a year-ago level of Bt9.4b, but QH hold its view that 2009 presales will be flat from a year earlier. Margins are predicted to fall in a slowing sales environment. We estimate 2009 profit to fall 15% YoY.

Market survey still suggests sales potential of two condo projects in Lang Suan and Sathorn with construction expected to be completed this year and ownership transfer next year: The success of sales at two condo projects will translate into 2010 revenues
Construction of the two condo projects: (i) the Bt3.5b, 177-unit high-end 'Q Condo' at Lang Suan and (ii) the Bt2.3b, 533-unit mid-end 'Q House Condo Sathorn' next to BTS are still ongoing and expected to be completed with ownership transfer next year. Sales launch is scheduled for the middle of this year. The latest market survey shows that (i) potential buyers interested in the Sathorn project are more than the number of units to be put up for sale, and (ii) the high-end-condo project at Lang Suan draws interest from 200 prospective buyers with purchasing power, outstripping the total number of 177 units to be put up for sale. This suggests sales potential in these two condo projects. It sales perform well, QH will have a backlog of roughly Bt6b carried into 2010. Combined with monthly sales of about Bt500m, translating into Bt6b-Bt7b a year, 2010 revenues should be over Bt10b, up from an estimated Bt8.7b in 2009. In our view, profit growth visibility is likely in 2010.

Valuation & Recommendation
In our view, its presales momentum is not too bad and sales in the high-end segment are starting to show signs of improving. For now, we keep our 2009 profit view unchanged for QH. At current levels, the stock is trading at 4x 2009 P/E and dividend yield of roughly 10%. Its P/BV ratio is also low at a mere 0.55x. At the end of the day, we reiterate a BUY stance on QH with a price target of Bt1.20/share.

By Phillip Securities (Thailand) Plc. on Mar 2, 2009

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